India EV Sales Mid-December 2025: VinFast Enters Top 5 – Is Tata’s Dominance Under Threat?

The electric four-wheeler market in India is witnessing a seismic shift in the first half of December 2025. While the "Big Three"—Tata.ev, MG, and Mahindra—retain their podium spots, the headline story is not just VinFast entering the Top 5, but the massive warning signal this sends to the incumbents.

New data from VAHAN (excluding Telangana) shows VinFast securing the #4 spot with 163 units sold, leapfrogging luxury giants BMW and mass-market player Kia.

Market Comparison: The Gap Narrows

A comparison of Mid-November vs. Mid-December data reveals a cooling trend for the leaders, while the new challenger gains ground.

The VinFast Threat: Why MG and Mahindra Should Worry?

VinFast’s entry into the Top 5 with just 163 units might seem small compared to MG’s 1,447, but the context is critical.

• Premium-Only Handicap : VinFast has achieved this volume primarily with its premium SUVs (VF 6/VF 7). They are effectively competing with one hand tied behind their back, lacking a budget model.

• The "Overtake" Strategy : Once VinFast stabilizes its supply chain from its Tamil Nadu plant, the volume difference could vanish. If they can sell 150+ units of a ₹25L+ car in two weeks, the potential volume for a sub-₹15L car is exponential.

• Targeting #2 and #3 : MG and Mahindra are currently fighting for the "Best of the Rest" title. A consolidated VinFast, with a full portfolio, could easily split this vote, pushing one of them out of the podium spots by late 2026.

Red Alert for Tata.ev : The Monopoly is at Risk

For years, Tata.ev has enjoyed an uncontested run, commanding over 65% of the market. However, VinFast's performance signals the first genuine cracks in this fortress.

• The Upcoming Price War : VinFast is preparing to launch the VF 3 (a micro-SUV) and VF 5. These are direct, aggressive competitors to Tata's bread-and-butter models, the Tiago.ev and Punch.ev.

• The "Novelty" Factor : Indian buyers are showing a willingness to experiment with new global brands. If VinFast offers better range or tech at a similar price point to the Tiago, Tata’s high-volume entry-level sales could see a significant erosion.

• Market Share Reality : Tata's dip from 2,556 units (Mid-Nov) to 2,296 units (Mid-Dec) suggests the market is already correcting. If a competitor eats into just 10-15% of their entry-level sales, Tata's total dominance will slide, forcing them into a price war that hurts profitability.

Conclusion

Mid-December 2025 will be remembered not as the month Tata led, but as the month the challenger arrived. With VinFast entering the Top 5 using only premium models, the stage is set for a massive disruption when their mass-market cars hit the road. MG and Mahindra are in the immediate firing line, but the long-term target is clearly Tata’s crown.