Ampere Wins the Sprint, But Can It Win the Marathon Against Ola?

The Vahan dashboard of India's electric vehicle revolution is currently flashing an anomaly. As of February 6, 2026, Ampere Electric (839 units) is officially tracking ahead of Ola Electric (834 units) on the Vahan portal.

For a market accustomed to Ola Electric's dominance, this intersection is startling. It represents a dramatic reversal of fortunes: the "Original Top 3" survivor clawing its way back. At the same time, the unicorn battles a sales freefall—from a peak of over 53,000 monthly units to just 7,515 in December 2025.

However, veteran industry watchers are experiencing a sense of déjà vu. We have seen this movie before. Ampere often wins the first week; Ola wins the month.

As the industry asks whether the "Tortoise" (Ampere) has finally caught the "Hare" (Ola), the answer lies in a complex mix of "ghost" volumes, end-of-month discounting, and a glaring 4kWh hole in Ampere's arsenal.

The 'Hockey Stick' Reality

While the current lead is symbolic, it comes with a heavy caveat. Ola Electric is notorious for its "hockey stick" sales curve. The company typically experiences slow registrations in the first two weeks, only to implement aggressive discounts and marketing blitzes in the final ten days to artificially inflate its ranking.

History suggests that by February 28, Ola may well race past Ampere on the Vahan charts once again. The question, however, is whether that lead will be real or merely a registered technicality.

The 'Ghost' in the Machine: Why Ampere Might Already Be Ahead

If Ola overtakes Ampere on Vahan by a margin of 200 or 300 units later this month, it might still be a "paper victory."

Ampere possesses a hidden advantage that the Vahan portal does not capture: the Reo 80. Launched in April 2025, this license-free, low-speed scooter is intended for Tier-2 and Tier-3 markets and does not require registration.

• The Hidden Math: Industry intelligence indicates that the Reo series accounts for 10–15% of Ampere's total volume.
• The Real Score: If Vahan shows Ampere at 839, the actual sales (including the unregistered Reo) are likely over 930 units.

This "Ghost Volume" suggests that even if Ola appears to be ahead on the official dashboard, Ampere may be selling more units in Indian homes. The gap between the two is now so razor-thin that the "invisible" rural volume could be the tiebreaker.

The Missing Weapon: The 4kWh Gap

However, for Ampere to move from "sniping at Ola's heels" to a decisive, sustainable victory, it must address a critical deficiency in its product lineup.

Ampere has successfully rebuilt its safety reputation—pivoting to Lithium Ferrous Phosphate (LFP) batteries with the Magnus Neo and Magnus Grand. It has demonstrated its ability to build premium technology with the Nexus. But it lacks the one weapon that defines Ola's dominance: Range Supremacy.

• The Ola Moat: Ola's S1 X (4kWh) is the market's cheapest high-capacity scooter, addressing the primary consumer fear: range anxiety.
• The Ampere Ceiling: Ampere's newest flagship, the Magnus G-Max, peaks at 3.0 kWh.

There is currently no scooter in Ampere's stable that matches the sheer energy density of Ola's 4kWh offering. Until Ampere plugs this gap, it cannot steal the "inter-city" commuter demographic. As long as Ola owns the "Range per Rupee" metric, it can always discount its way back to a lead at the end of the month.

Verdict: From Sprinter to Marathon Runner?

Ampere's journey from the brink of the FAME II crisis, where it paid ₹124.91 crore in fines to survive, to its challenge to Ola in 2026 is nothing short of remarkable. With a ₹1,000 crore IPO approved and a fully compliant supply chain, they have the stamina for a long fight.

But to answer the ultimate question: Can Ampere overtake Ola overall?

The answer is Yes, but with conditions. Ampere is currently winning the sprint on resilience and rural depth. But to win the marathon, they must stop bringing a 3kWh knife to a 4kWh gunfight. Until Ampere launches a high-range variant to neutralise Ola's last remaining advantage, they may remain the perpetual runner-up on the Vahan charts, always leading on the 1st of the month, but trailing on the 30th.

At EVINDIA, we've been tracking the IPO-bound Ampere by Greaves Mobility since its inception and have published a detailed analysis mapping its journey. Please click here to read it.