Will Trump’s administration impact the Indian EV market?

The US election's result has observed bittersweet reactions from all over the world. Donald Trump has once again climbed up the presidential chair by riding a worldwide wave of “right” ideology. Since the inception of his 2nd tenure, Donald Trump has already taken decisions to put “America first”. One such decision by the President-elect is to put a 25% tariff on all products imported into the US from Mexico and Canada and a 35% tariff on products from China. This hard-power decision taken by Trump has been feared by many economists throughout the world. But what are they feared about? What does it mean for India? Are EVs in India going to be more expensive? Let's find out!

The Decision

It is safe to say that the steps taken by Trump’s administration do represent the majoritarian will of the American people as he was already advocating for a 60 per cent tariff on imports from China, and 10-20 per cent on others. According to him, high tariffs will boost manufacturing in the US which will rebalance trade with other countries, and improve government finances. The President-elect announced the tariff imposition on the top trading partners of the USA–Mexico, Canada and China on the social media platform Truth Social. 

Earlier, the Inflation Reduction Act has already introduced various tax credits for EV companies to set up their manufacturing units in the USA. In fact, according to a report by nrdc.org, the USA has already surpassed China as the most favourable country for EV investments. Now, with the tariff hanging over, it will be interesting to note the reactions of the worldwide EV companies. 

The effect 

According to research by economists at the Peterson Institute of International Economics, Trump's policies might wind up costing the average American household more than $2,600 a year. Nonetheless, it seems that both Republicans and Democrats support the concept of increasing tariffs. 

Free market analysts and advocates of globalisation have shown serious concern over Trump’s decision, as the tariff wars between countries may come at a cost of inflation and global slowdown. Amid such volatility, the comparatively nascent market of electric vehicles has also come under threat. 

Although, as per studies, the USA only accounts for 7-10% contribution to the global supply chain of EVs, the direct repercussions will be faced by the companies who have their manufacturing or assembly units in the USA.  

Recent reports by Bloomberg have shown that BYD intends to reduce prices to tackle tariffs and not shift the burden on consumers. The step came after Tesla offered a price cut on its Model Y in China. BYD, the Chinese giant has been in constant competition with Tesla for the rank of No1 in worldwide sales.

However, communist China provides a great government intervention to absorb the losses which the company makes in order to remain in the competition. Although this policy is not designed to serve in the long run, BYD has already reported to cut down its prices. 

Trump’s decision has invoked chances of potential retaliation by Mexico and China, while Canada has started negotiations. Once an advocate of free trade, the USA seems to shift its policy towards protectionist ideas, risking a global slowdown, amid the broken dispute resolution mechanism of the World Trade Organization (WTO).

The USA as the third largest EV market in the world accounts for 10% of the overall global market worth, after China accounting for 60% and Europe accounting for 25%. However, in the USA, approximately 70% of the sold EVs are domestically manufactured while $19 billion worth of electric vehicles are imported, according to the USA customs clearance website. Hence, it can be said that after the tariffs, the global EV industry may be affected by at least $19 billion. Moreover, the raw material imported from other countries to manufacture EVs may also add to the losses, taking the number to another higher value. 

Impact on India 

India is an import-oriented country whose overall trade remains in deficit, however, India has a trade surplus with the USA. That said, if the inflation in the US market rises, the demand in the market will reduce, ultimately leading to a loss of a considerable amount of India’s foreign exchange. It is also interesting to note that in Trump 1.0, India has already lost its Generalised System of Preference (GSP) status which obliged a developed nation to buy certain products from a developing country. However, as per SBI, there has been a significant rise in the trade of India with the USA despite revoking the GSP status which is a good sign for the overall Indian market. 

With bilateral trade over $120 billion in FY24, the US continues to be India's largest trading partner, marginally surpassing India's trade with China. India's dependence on the US market has increased over the last ten years; currently, 18% of India's exports go to the US, up from 10% in 2010–11. India exports a wide range of products to the US, including engineering equipment, electronics, and textiles.

The EV companies planning to launch themselves in the US market might have to change their plans. On the other hand, the earlier cut in the fed rates by the USA might indicate a good time for EV companies to go global. Hence, EV companies must navigate between this opportunity and challenge to make their way to the world. Whereas, when it comes to pricing, it is highly unlikely that any Indian EV company will significantly change the cost of its EV due to this update.