Inside TVS Motor’s Q3 Numbers – Decoding the ₹995 Cr Valuation & The "Orbiter Effect"

By EVINDIA Research Desk

In our latest industry showdown infographic, we positioned TVS Motor Company as the "Volume Scaler" of Q3 FY26. While the headline numbers show massive growth, the real story lies in the calculated shift in their revenue quality and margin structure.

Here is the forensic justification for the data points presented in our "Chetak vs. TVS" showdown, specifically for the TVS iQube and Orbiter portfolio.

1. The Revenue Number: ~₹995 Crore (Calculated)

The Figure: ~₹995 Crore (Electric 2-Wheelers Only) The Source: Consolidated Revenue Analysis & Segment Split The Logic: Unlike Bajaj, TVS does not explicitly state "The scooter segment crossed ₹1,000 Cr." However, we can back-calculate this with high precision using their official Q3 financials.

• Total EV Revenue: Analysts and management confirm that the total EV business accounts for ~10% of Standalone Revenue. With Q3 Standalone Revenue reported at ₹12,475 Crores, the total EV pie stands at ~₹1,250 Crores.
• The 3-Wheeler Deduction: TVS sold ~8,500 electric three-wheelers (King EV/Kargo). At an estimated commercial ASP of ₹3.0 Lakhs, the 3W vertical contributes ~₹255 Crores.
• The Remainder:  ₹1,250 Cr less ₹255 Cr = ₹995 Crores.
• Conclusion: The electric two-wheeler vertical is knocking on the door of the ₹1,000 Cr club, sitting just shy of Bajaj’s revenue despite higher volumes.

2. The Unit Sales: 91,787 Units (Retail Data)

The Figure: 91,787 Units The Source: Vahan Dashboard + Telangana State Portal The Logic: There is often confusion between "Wholesale" (reported as 1.06 Lakh by TVS) and "Retail." Our infographic uses 91,787, and here is why:

• Domestic vs. Export: The official 1.06 Lakh figure includes exports to markets like Nepal and Indonesia. For a fair "India vs. India" comparison with Bajaj, we must look at domestic registrations.
• The Inventory Factor: The gap between Wholesale (106k) and Retail (91k) suggests TVS is aggressively stocking up dealers for the national rollout of the new TVS Orbiter.
• Market Share: At 91,787 retail units, TVS commands a dominant 24% domestic market share, out-voluming Bajaj by ~13,500 units.

3. Revenue Per Vehicle: ₹1.08 Lakh (The "Mass Market" Shift)

The Calculation: Revenue (₹995 Cr) / Retail Units (91,787) = ₹1.08 Lakh per Scooter

The Justification & The "Orbiter Effect": Why is TVS’s revenue per vehicle lower than Bajaj’s (₹1.08L vs. ₹1.27L)? This is not a weakness; it is a strategy.

• The Pivot: Q3 marked the national expansion of the TVS Orbiter, priced at ~₹99,000.
• The Mix Shift: In previous quarters, the premium iQube (₹1.2L+) dominated the mix. In Q3, the influx of the cheaper Orbiter diluted the Average Selling Price (ASP).
• The Trade-off: TVS has consciously traded Revenue Per Unit for Total Volume, successfully widening the funnel to capture the mass-market buyer.

4. Profitability: Contribution Positive (But EBITDA Negative)

The Status: EBITDA Negative (Approaching Breakeven) The Source: Management Commentary The Logic: While Bajaj has hit double-digit profitability, TVS is playing a different game.

• The Official Stance: Management stated clearly that "On contribution, we are positive... and I’m very confident that this EV will also become EBITDA positive," implying the segment has not yet crossed that threshold.
• The Nuance: "Contribution Positive" means they make money on every unit before fixed costs (R&D, marketing, overheads). They are not incurring hardware losses, but the massive investment required to scale the Orbiter platform keeps final EBITDA slightly in the red for now.

5. The PLI Reality: ~₹70 Cr (Net Benefit)

The Estimate: 0.70% Margin Impact / ~₹70 Cr Value The Logic: Why is TVS’s PLI number lower than Bajaj’s?

• The Sharing Model: TVS Management explicitly stated that the PLI benefit improves their margin by 70 basis points (0.7%) on the total revenue. However, they also clarified that they share this benefit with suppliers.
• The Math: 0.7% of Corporate Revenue (₹12,475 Cr) equates to a ~₹87 Crore total benefit. Allocating 80% of this to the 2-wheeler vertical gives us a realised benefit of ~₹70 Crores.

Conclusion

TVS Motor’s Q3 story is one of aggressive expansion. By launching the Orbiter and pricing it for the masses (ASP ₹1.08 Lakh), they have secured the volume crown (91k retail units). While they trail Bajaj in pure profitability, their "Contribution Positive" status—supported by a steady PLI flow—proves they are building a sustainable ecosystem ready for massive scale in 2026.