Decoding Bajaj Chetak’s Q3 Numbers – How we arrived at the ₹1,000 Cr Milestone

By EVINDIA Research Desk

In our latest infographic released on LinkedIn, we positioned Bajaj Auto as the "Profit & Value Leader" in the Q3 FY26 electric two-wheeler showdown. While the company does not release a granular line item spreadsheet for its EV division, a careful forensic analysis of the Q3 earnings call transcript, combined with government registration data, reveals the hard numbers hidden in plain sight.

Here is the justification for the data points presented in our "Chetak vs. TVS" showdown, specifically for Bajaj Auto.

1. The Revenue Number: ~₹1,000 Crore (Official)

The Figure: ~₹1,000 Crore The Source: Management Disclosure The Logic: This is not an estimate; it is a management-confirmed floor. During the Q3 FY26 earnings call, Bajaj Auto’s Executive Director, Rakesh Sharma, made a historic disclosure regarding the split of their EV revenue:

"Individually both the segments, the scooter segment [Chetak] and the auto segment [3-Wheeler], crossed ₹1,000 crore of quarterly revenue each for the first time." — Q3 FY26 Earnings Call

This statement is the "Smoking Gun." It confirms that the Chetak vertical has matured into a ₹4,000 Cr annual run-rate business.

2. The Unit Sales: 78,315 Units (Retail Data)

The Figure: 78,315 Units The Source: Vahan Dashboard + Telangana State Portal The Logic: Unlike competitors who report "Wholesale Dispatches" (factory to dealer), Bajaj Auto does not explicitly break out Chetak wholesale numbers in its quarterly summary. To benchmark fairly, we turned to the ultimate truth: actual road registrations.

• Data Aggregation: By combining Vahan data with the Telangana state portal (often excluded from the central dashboard), we arrived at a total retail footprint of 78,315 units for Q3.
• Why this matters: This number represents actual customers paying for the product, filtering out channel inventory stuffing.

3. Revenue Per Vehicle: ₹1.27 Lakh (The "Premium" Proof)

The Calculation:   Revenue (₹1,000 Cr) / Retail Units (78,315) = ₹1.27 Lakh per Scooter

The Justification & The "Price Ladder" Strategy: Is an Average Selling Price (ASP) of ₹1.27 Lakh realistic? Yes. In fact, it highlights Bajaj's strategic masterstroke.

• Dominance of the Top Model: Unlike peers who rely on cheaper models for volume, Bajaj's sales mix is heavily skewed toward the premium segment. In Q2, management revealed that ~85% of sales came from the Chetak 35 Series (Premium/Urbane), priced above ₹1 Lakh.
• The Strategic Ladder: Bajaj has successfully engineered a "Price Ladder" that pushes consumers upward. By offering the highly desirable "Metal Body" and a superior range in the top-tier 35 Series, they have nudged customers to upgrade from the entry-level variants. While the new affordable Chetak 2901 is scaling, revenue heavy lifting is still driven by the premium models, validating the high ASP.

4. Profitability: Double-Digit Positive EBITDA

The Status: EBITDA Positive (Double-Digit) The Source: CFO Commentary The Logic: This is the most critical differentiator. While the industry bleeds cash, Bajaj has turned the corner.

• CFO Dinesh Thapar confirmed: "The EV business now delivers double-digit EBITDA margins".
• Specific Confirmation: When asked if the two-wheeler segment specifically had hit breakeven (excluding the highly profitable 3-wheelers), management replied: "Have we hit EBITDA break-even for electric two-wheelers? Yes, we have".

5. The PLI "Step Up": ~₹150 – ₹180 Cr Estimate

The Estimate: ~1.50% Impact / ~₹150+ Cr Value The Logic: Bajaj’s margin performance is heavily supported by the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme.

• The Bracket: Management confirmed they have graduated to the "highest bracket" of the PLI incentive (approx. 18%) due to high localisation.
• The Math: For a ₹1,000 Cr revenue base, an 18% incentive translates to roughly ₹180 Crores of potential cash flow. Bajaj books this gross amount as "Other Operating Income," which explains the sharp spike in its profitability metrics relative to peers that share this benefit with suppliers.

Conclusion

The numbers tell a clear story: Bajaj Auto has successfully decoupled its EV financial destiny from the "cash burn" narrative. By selling 78,315 units (Retail) at a premium realisation of ~₹1.27 Lakh—driven by the dominance of the Chetak 35 Series—they have achieved what was previously thought impossible in the Indian EV space: a profitable, ₹1,000 Crore-per-quarter scooter business.