Ampere Overtakes Ola: 'Ghost Volume', Resurgence & The 4kWh Gap

In the high stakes dashboard of India’s electric vehicle revolution, the first week of February 2026 has delivered a statistic that defies the industry script of the last three years.

For the first six days of the month, Ampere Electric, the mobility arm of the 165 year old engineering giant Greaves Cotton, has nudged ahead of the unicorn Ola Electric on the government’s Vahan portal. As of February 6, Ampere registered 839 units, while Ola Electric trailed at 834 units.

For a market formerly ruled by Ola’s monthly volumes of 50,000+, this intersection is symbolic. It marks the culmination of a brutal two year correction—a period that saw the collapse of the "Original Top 3," the regulatory siege of FAME II, and the quiet reconstruction of Ampere as the sole survivor among legacy players.

However, the Vahan numbers tell only part of the story. A closer analysis reveals a "Ghost Volume" driven by the license free Reo 80 which suggests that Ampere’s lead is not just a statistical blip, but potentially a confirmed market reality.

1. The ‘Kick’ and the Caveat: Analysing the February Intersection

The current lead (839 vs. 834) requires contextual nuance. Market observers know that Ola Electric typically operates on a "hockey stick" curve, deploying aggressive discounts in the final ten days of the month to inflate registration numbers.

However, dismissing Ampere’s current lead as a weekly anomaly ignores the trajectory of 2025:

• Ola’s Descent: Ola began 2025 with 24,411 registrations in January but closed December 2025 with just 7,515 units a collapse driven by service infrastructure challenges and saturation.
• Ampere’s Ascent: Conversely, Ampere hit its stride in the festive season of 2025, recording a calendar year peak of 7,639 units in October (a 90% YoY growth).

The lines on the graph have crossed because one player is in freefall while the other has stabilised.

2. The ‘Ghost Volume’: Why Vahan Undercounts Ampere

The most critical, yet overlooked, factor in this battle is the Reo 80.

Launched in April 2025, the Reo 80 is a "license free" low speed scooter (top speed <25 km/h) powered by an LFP battery, targeting Tier-2 cities, students, and the elderly. Because these vehicles do not require a driving license or RTO registration, they do not appear on the Vahan portal, which tracks only registered vehicles.

• The Missing Data: While Vahan shows 839 units for Ampere (comprising the Nexus, Magnus, and Primus models), it completely excludes the Reo 80.
• The ‘Real’ Number: Industry intelligence suggests the Reo series constitutes 10–15% of Ampere’s overall volume.
• The Implication: If we factor in this unregistered volume, Ampere’s actual sales for the first week of February are likely well above 930 units.

This "Ghost Volume" means Ampere is likely already the true Number 5 player in the country, sitting comfortably ahead of Ola Electric’s reported figures, even before Ola’s end of month discount push begins.

3. The Survival Story: Surviving the ‘China Assembler’ Purge

To appreciate this comeback, one must look at the graveyard of the "Original Top 3." Until 2021, the market was ruled by Hero Electric, Okinawa Autotech, and Ampere.

Then came the FAME II Crackdown in 2023. The government alleged these firms were "China Assemblers"—importing finished kits and claiming local subsidies. The Ministry of Heavy Industries demanded refunds.

• The Collapse of Peers: Hero Electric and Okinawa fought the allegations and lost their working capital.
  • Hero Electric: Crashed from 97,000+ units in 2022 to just 100 units in 2025.
  • Okinawa: Crashed from 87,000+ units in 2022 to 1,500 units in 2025.
• The Ampere Pivot: Backed by Greaves Cotton, Ampere took a pragmatic route. In late 2023, they refunded ₹124.91 crore to the government "without admitting guilt".

"They bought their survival," notes a sector analyst. By clearing the regulatory debt, Ampere shed the stigma and entered 2025 as a compliant OEM.

4. 2025: The Year of Product Reconstruction

Ampere used 2025 to overhaul its "empty" portfolio into an engineered lineup focused on safety and family utility.

A. The Safety Pivot (LFP Chemistry) While competitors faced fire incidents with NMC batteries, Ampere transitioned its core portfolio to Lithium Ferrous Phosphate (LFP) batteries, which are safer in Indian heat.

• Magnus Neo (Jan 2025): Introduced portable LFP packs with a 100+ km range.
• Magnus Grand & G-Max (Jan 2026): Solidified the "family first" positioning with ranges up to 142 km.

B. Premiumization with Nexus The launch of the Nexus in mid-2024 proved Greaves could build a scooter that competed on specs, featuring a touchscreen interface and a "4x Strong" chassis.

5. The Achilles' Heel: The 4kW Gap

Despite the momentum, EVINDIA maintains a critical view of Ampere’s ability to sustainably beat Ola. The current victory is built on resilience, but Ola possesses a specific weapon Ampere lacks: The 4kWh Battery.

Ola’s S1 X (4kWh) is the cheapest high-range scooter in India, targeting customers who fear range anxiety above all else.

• Ampere’s Ceiling: The new flagship Magnus G Max peaks at 3.0 kWh.
• The Gap: There is currently no Ampere product that matches the sheer kilowatt hour value of Ola’s 4kWh variant.

For Ampere to turn this weekly lead into a permanent victory, it must fill this product vacuum. A 4kWh variant would strip Ola of its last remaining unique selling proposition.

6. The War Chest: IPO and Vertical Integration

The final piece of Ampere’s resurgence is financial independence. On May 8, 2025, SEBI approved Greaves Electric Mobility’s IPO to raise ₹1,000 crore.

Unlike the marketing-heavy spend of 2021, the Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) reveals a focus on Vertical Integration:

• ₹82.90 Crore for in-house battery assembly.
• ₹375 Crore for R&D and technology centers.

This ensures Ampere will never again be accused of being a mere assembler.

The Tortoise Catches the Hare

As we watch the February 2026 numbers trickle in, the narrative is clear. Ola Electric, the hare that sprinted on hype, is catching its breath. Ampere, the tortoise that carried the heavy shell of regulatory fines and legacy restructuring, has kept walking.

With the "Ghost Volume" of the Reo 80 likely pushing them past the finish line already, Ampere has proven that in India’s EV market, regulatory compliance and financial depth matter more than flash sales.